BANGLADESH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES

INDIA’S AFGHANISTAN POLICY: RAMIFICATIONS FOR REGIONAL POWER BALANCE IN SOUTH ASIA

Author: Md. Muhibbur Rahman

DOI Link: DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.56888/BIISSj2013v34n4a3

ABSTRACT

Regional security dynamics undergo significant transition with the shifting alliance formation within the geopolitical setting of South Asia. Traditional ‘balance of power’ argument sees a potential for stability in the emerging distribution of power, whether it is a ‘unilateral hegemonic distribution’ or a ‘pluri-lateral bipolar or multi-polar distribution’. But a growing Indo-Afghan partnership in South Asia offers, as the paper argues, a more complicated case. Indian stronghold in Afghanistan is enhancing already asymmetric distribution of power in the region, granting a more favourable power balance for India allowing the country to pursue its objective of emerging as a major world power. The maturing of Indo-US defence ties and the US approval of Indian stronger presence in Afghanistan provide India with enlarged incentives and enthusiasm to dominate the regional security matters. On the other hand, Pakistan’s critical stake in Afghan security and its likely antagonistic reaction to Indian pre-eminent position in the region might lead to prolonged instability in South Asia. Besides, China’s growing presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia will also complicate India’s regional leadership potential. The paper makes an attempt to assess the competing claims on the regional ramifications of India’s Afghan policy in South Asia with a view to unravelling emerging security atmosphere in the region in the wake of US withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2014.