BANGLADESH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES

LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION AND FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE IN SAUDI ARABIA

Author: Nazmul Arifeen

DOI Link: https://www.doi.org/10.56888/BIISSj2019v40n4a1

ABSTRACT

Saudi Arabia’s regional posture signals some conspicuous foreign policy alterations in recent years. There seems to be a potential thaw in its relationship with Israel ostensibly overshadowing the Palestinian cause. An increased likelihood of confrontation with Iran appears more realistic than any time in the past. Finally, a more assertive regional leadership role is heralded by, inter alia, a protracted military campaign in Yemen and an embargo on Qatar. These changes in foreign policy behaviour are often believed to be precipitated by the gradual ascendency of relatively young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Extant literature shows that under certain circumstances, leadership change may trigger foreign policy reorientation. Such drastic foreign policy changes are more likely to occur in non-democratic regimes because there is no ‘audience cost’ or accountability mechanisms to restraint sudden deviation of policy. The paper analyzes whether these changes in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy is linked to gradual leadership succession. It rejects the claims that the changes are correlated with the ongoing transfer of power. It argues how regional dynamics such as power vacuum triggered by the US military invasion and Shiite revival compel Saudi Arabia to take on a more dominant role and recalibrate its external policy.