BANGLADESH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES

TAIWAN AS A FLASHPOINT IN THE US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION: POTENTIAL ESCALATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BANGLADESH

Author: Ayesha Binte Towhid

DOI Link: https://www.doi.org/10.56888/BIISSj2023v44n3a3

ABSTRACT

Taiwan, a contentious issue in US-China relations, has become a critical factor in intensifying strategic competition between the two great powers. The tension surrounding Taiwan is not new, but the nationalist, normative and geopolitical significances of the island in a time of China’s ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’, the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and the narrowing gap in military capabilities between the US and China have turned Taiwan into the most dangerous flashpoint. The paper aims to appraise the relevant stakeholders in Bangladesh regarding this flashpoint, discuss possible scenarios of escalation and indicate their potential implications for the country. The paper perceives that while a US-China conflict centring on Taiwan is not inevitable, the heightening of tension is clearly visible which can escalate to another crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Although the possibility is rare, a conflict with China dragging in the US and its allies cannot be completely ruled out either. Using primary and secondary sources, the paper finds that as Bangladesh is highly dependent on both the US and China in several key sectors, any escalation may have implications for its foreign policy, defence cooperation and trade. Thus, it is crucial to develop an awareness of the sensitivities centering on the issue and prepare ahead to avoid shocks and minimise impacts for Bangladesh.