BANGLADESH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES

US-IRAN RELATIONS SINCE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION: MIDDLE EAST AS A GROWING FLASHPOINT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

Author: M Ashique Rahman

DOI Link: https://www.doi.org/10.56888/BIISSj2024v45n4a5

ABSTRACT

The US-Iran relationship has been on a roller-coaster since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. For four and half decades, the relationship between Iran and the US (United States) has been marked by rows and conflicts, ranging from hostage-taking and sanctions to military confrontation. Subsequent US administrations followed a policy of “carrots and sticks”, although, more often than not oscillated between the two from one administration to another. A significant improvement in the relationship occurred during the Obama administration with the inking of the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015. However, after Obama, when President Trump came to power, a major policy shift was evident that eventually resulted in the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear agreement. The early 2020 conflagration in the relationship, due to the killing of Major General Qassem Suleimani, Commander of the Quds force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had drawn the two countries onto the brink of a war. That and subsequent incidents had increased the likelihood of a conflict manifold — low-intensity conflict or a proxy war if not a full-fledged or total war. The relationship, however, did not deteriorate further as some observers predicted. During the Biden administration, a status quo was maintained albeit few sporadic incidents. All this changed abruptly due to the Israel- Hamas war that transformed the Middle East as a growing flashpoint. Accordingly, the paper seeks to answer the crucial question: what are or would be the implications of intensifying tension between the US and Iran, and especially, if there is an escalation into military conflict direct or indirect. The paper upholds the view that a military conflict would generate serious implications, engendering immense consequences at the global, regional and national levels severely undermining global peace and stability.