AN EMERGING ORDER IN THE GULF

This article examines the emerging regional order in the Persian Gulf in the wake of the 1988 ceasefire that ended the Iran-Iraq War. It analyzes the shifting balance of power between the key regional actors, particularly Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, and the role of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The study assesses the unresolved issues and deep-seated rivalries that continued to threaten stability despite the end of open hostilities. The research explores the changing role of external powers, particularly the United States and the Soviet Union, in the region's security architecture. The paper argues that the end of the war did not bring a stable peace but rather initiated a new phase of strategic realignment and competition, setting the stage for future conflicts. The analysis concludes by evaluating the prospects for a durable and cooperative security framework in the Gulf.

The cessation of hostilities between Iran and Iraq in 1988 did not usher in an era of peace but rather a period of profound strategic realignment in the Persian Gulf. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the emerging regional order in this new context. The study begins by assessing the post-war postures of the two primary belligerents. It examines Iraq's emergence as a major, battle-hardened military power with hegemonic ambitions, and Iran's focus on post-war reconstruction and the challenges of consolidating its revolutionary state. The core of the article is an analysis of the evolving role of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by Saudi Arabia. It explores how the GCC states, having supported Iraq during the war, now faced the challenge of managing a powerful and potentially threatening neighbor in Baghdad, while also remaining wary of Iran. The paper delves into the shifting dynamics of external power involvement. With the Soviet Union's influence waning, the United States was solidifying its role as the primary external security guarantor for the Gulf monarchies. The findings suggest that the post-war order was inherently unstable, characterized by an assertive Iraq, a resilient but isolated Iran, and a nervous GCC looking to the West for security. This fragile balance, the paper argues, contained the seeds of the next major regional crisis, which would erupt with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990.