THE INDIAN OCEAN: A ZONE OF PEACE OR A ZONE OF CONFLICT?

This strategic assessment examines the evolving dynamics in the Indian Ocean region during the mid-1980s and analyzes whether the area is evolving toward a zone of peace or descending into a zone of conflict. The article explores the historical context of the Indian Ocean as an arena of great power competition and regional rivalry. The research investigates the concept of the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace as proposed in United Nations resolutions and assesses the progress toward realizing this vision. The study examines the strategic interests of major external powers in the Indian Ocean, including the United States, Soviet Union, France, and China, and analyzes their military presence and alliance relationships in the region. The article assesses regional security dynamics, including interstate conflicts, internal instability, and emerging cooperative mechanisms among littoral states. The research also evaluates the impact of specific flashpoints, including the Iran-Iraq war, Afghanistan conflict, and South African regional destabilization, on Indian Ocean security. Furthermore, the analysis identifies factors that could promote the Indian Ocean as a zone of peace and conditions that might lead to increased conflict.

The Indian Ocean represented one of the most strategically significant maritime regions during the Cold War, with this article providing a comprehensive assessment of its evolving security dynamics in the mid-1980s. The research begins by examining the historical context of the Indian Ocean as an arena of international competition, tracing the evolution from colonial naval rivalry through Cold War superpower confrontation to contemporary regional security challenges. The analysis explores the concept of the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace as articulated in United Nations General Assembly resolutions, examining the original vision, subsequent diplomatic efforts, and practical obstacles to implementation. The article investigates the strategic interests of external powers in the Indian Ocean, analyzing how superpower competition, energy security concerns, and global power projection requirements shape military presence and alliance relationships. The study examines regional security dynamics among littoral states, assessing both conflict patterns including Indo-Pakistani tensions, Iran-Iraq war spillover, and South African destabilization, and cooperative initiatives including regional organization development and confidence-building measures. The research evaluates specific flashpoints and their implications for regional security, including the ongoing Iran-Iraq war, Soviet presence in Afghanistan, South African regional policies, and various internal conflicts in littoral states. Based on the comprehensive assessment, the article analyzes the competing trends toward conflict and cooperation in the Indian Ocean and identifies the factors that will determine the regions future trajectory. The findings provide valuable insights into the complex interplay of global and regional security dynamics in strategically vital maritime spaces and contribute to understanding how zones of peace can be established in areas of traditional great power competition.