Dynamics of the party system : alignment and realigment of political parties in the US

1. Party Realignment: What? When? How?                           1

   A Comparative Study of Past Realignments 3

   The Concept of Party Realignment 5

   The Partial Character of Realignments 10

2. Some Hypothetical Scenarios                                 11

   Formation of a Party System 11

   The Prerealignment Period 14

   Scenario 1: No Major Realignment 16

   Scenario 2: Realignment of the Two Existing Parties 18

   Scenario 3: Realignment of the Existing Parties through the

  Absorption of a Third Party 20

  Scenario 4: Realignment through the Replacement of One Major Party 22

   Scenario 5: Realignment through the Replacement of Both Old Parties 23

3. The Realignment Process: A Preliminary Statement                     26

   Five Variables 28

   Searching the Past 36

4. Slavery Polarizes the Nation                                  39

   Ascendancy of the Compromisers 39

   The Disruption of the Old Parties 48

   Division of the Whig Party 57

5. The Realignment of the 1850s                                63

   A New Major Party: The Republicans 65

   Substance of the Realignment 71

   Solidification of the New Alignment 84

6. The Agrarian Revolt and the Rise of Populism                              92

   The Farmers Enter Politics 94

   Tensions within the Old Parties 101

   The Protest Forces Regather 106

   The Major Parties Respond Slowly 109

   The Prairie State Parties of 1890 113

   Democratic Radicalism in the South 118

7. The Realignment of the 1890s                                120

   Creation of the People's Party 120

   Polarization of the Democratic Party 123

   Silver Democrats Capture the Party 135

   The Populists Are Absorbed 138

   The Critical Election of 1896 140

   Substance of the Realignment 146

   Persistence of the Civil War Alignment 153

8. Realignment Averted: The Progressive Era                                   155

   Diffuse Character of the Progressive Movement 156

   A Bipartisan Responsiveness 158

   The Accidents of Leadership 162

   The Deviation of 1912 165

9. Minor Realignments of the 1920s                          167

   The Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party 168

   La Follette, McNary-Haugenism, and Al Smith 171

   The "Al Smith Revolution" in the East 176

10. The Realignment of the 1930s                              183

    Herbert Hoover and Limited Intervention 184

    Before 1932: The Democrats Move Slowly 190

    After 1932: The Democrats Commit Themselves 193

    Substance of the Realignment 199

    Evolution of the New Deal Party System 212

    The Retreat toward the Center 214

11. Aftershocks of the New Deal Earthquake- in the North                          218

    North Dakota: The NPL Switches Parties 219

    Wisconsin: La Follette Progressivism Changes Parties 222

    Minnesota: The Farmer-Labor Movement Shifts Parties 226

    Pennsylvania: Patronage Republicans Switch Parties 229

    Two-Stage Realignment in Other States 233

    The Rise of the Programmatic Liberal Democrats 239

12. Aftershocks of the New Deal Earthquake- in the South                          245

    The Dixiecrat Revolt 247

    Metropolitan Republicanism in the South 254

    From Thurmond to Wallace: The Protest Vote 259

    The Second Stage of Southern Realignment 262

    The Programmatic Republican Conservatives 265

    Variations in the Second Stage 269

13. The Realignment Process: An Amplified Statement                                275

14. Some Further Notes on Party Dynamics                          299

    The Static, One-Dimensional Model 299

    An Open or a Closed Party System? 303

15. Crosscutting Issues since the New Deal                           308

    Communism as a Realigning Issue 310

    Race as a Realigning Issue 314

    Vietnam as a Realigning Issue 319

    Law and Order and the "Social Issue" 322

16. Current Trends in Party Strength                          332

    The Convergence of Party Strength 332

    A Competitive Party Balance 337

    Alienation and Independence 340

17. Whither the American Party System?                              355

    A Black-White Political Alignment? 355

    A Rebirth of the New Deal Party System? 369

Index                           375

Tables

6-1. Congressional Votes on the Passage of the Inflation Bill of 1874, by Region and Party 103

6-2. Votes in the House of Representatives on Railroad and Silver Legislation, 1878-86, by Region and Party 112

7-1. Congressional Votes in 1893 on Repeal of the Silver Purchase Act, by Region and Party 134

7-2. Democratic Losses in Selected Urban Centers in 1896 148

9-1. Democratic Gains in Twenty-five Predominantly Protestant Midwestern Counties, 1928 175

9-2. Comparison of the 1928 Democratic Vote for President with the 1924 Democratic Vote and 1924 Democratic plus Progressive Vote, Selected Urban Areas 179

11-1. The Two-Stage Realignment in Sixteen Northern States, Shown by Gains and Losses in Democratic Party Strength 234

16-1. Changes in Political Affiliation of Various Population Groups, 1960 and 1970 348

17-1. Democratic Gains in Five Southern States, 1968-70 364

Figures

2-1. Positions of Voting Blocs on Three Issues 12

2-2. A New Line of Cleavage Cuts across the Old 15

2-3. Realignment of the Two Existing Parties 19

2-4. A Strong and Growing Third Party Foreshadows Realignment 21

2-5. Realignment through the Replacement of One Party 23

2-6. Realignment through the Replacement of Both Parties 24

5-1. The Realignment of the 1850s: The Prerealignment Period 72

5-2. The Realignment of the 1850s 73

5-3. Free-Soil Strength in the North, 1848 Presidential Vote 76

5-4. Republican Strength in Eleven Northern States, Average of 1860 and 1864 Republican Presidential Vote 77

5-5. The Realignment of the 1850s in the North, as Shown by the Rise in the Whig-Republican Percentage of the Presidential Vote in Selected Areas, 1836-76 82

5-6. Pro-Democratic Realignment, as Shown by the Democratic Percentage of the Presidential Vote in Four Northern Counties, 1836-76 84

7-1. Long-term Price Decline after the Civil War 125

7-2. The Realignment of the 1890s 146

10-1. The Realignment of the 1930s 199

10-2. Democratic Percentage of the Presidential Vote in Selected Counties, 1920-48 201

10-3. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Enrollment in New York, Selected Areas, 1915-70 205

10-4. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Registration in West Virginia, Selected Counties, 1928-70 206

10-5. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Registration in Pennsylvania, Selected Counties, 1926-71 207

10-6. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Registration in Oregon, Selected Counties, 1918-68 208

10-7. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Registration in California, Selected Counties, 1928-70 209

11-1. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Vote Compared with Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Registration, Philadelphia, 1924-70 231

11-2. Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Vote Compared with Democratic Percentage of Two-Party Registration, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and California, 1924-70 237

12-1. Five Maps Showing "Black Belt" and Voting Behavior in the South, 1948-68 251

12-2. Trend in Republican Percentage of Total Presidential Vote, Selected Metropolitan Centers of the Rim South, 1936-68 255

12-3. Trend in Republican Percentage of Total Presidential Vote, Three Rural Dixiecrat Counties, 1936-68 260

12-4. Rise of Southern Republicanism in Contests below the Presidential Level, 1950-73 266

16-1. Convergence of Party Strength, as Shown in Democratic Proportion of Vote for Governor, U.S. Senator, and U.S. Representative, 1926-70 334

16-2. Party Identification of the Electorate, According to Two Public Opinion Surveys, 1952-70 344