THE AFGHAN CRISIS: PROSPECTS FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT

This strategic assessment examines the ongoing Afghanistan crisis in the mid-1980s and analyzes the prospects for a negotiated settlement to the protracted conflict. The article explores the evolving dynamics of the Afghanistan war, including the military stalemate, humanitarian consequences, and international dimensions of the conflict. The research investigates the positions of key actors in the conflict, including the Soviet Union, Afghan resistance groups, Pakistan, Iran, and major Western powers. The study analyzes previous negotiation attempts through United Nations mediation and assesses why these efforts have thus far failed to achieve a breakthrough. The article examines the internal political dynamics within Afghanistan, including the viability of the Soviet-backed government and the fragmentation of resistance forces. The research also evaluates potential compromise formulas and confidence-building measures that could facilitate a negotiated settlement. Furthermore, the analysis considers the regional and global implications of different settlement scenarios and identifies conditions necessary for sustainable peace in Afghanistan.

The Afghanistan conflict entered its fifth year in 1984 with no clear resolution in sight, with this article providing a comprehensive assessment of negotiation prospects and settlement possibilities. The research begins by examining the military situation on the ground, analyzing the stalemate between Soviet forces and Afghan resistance groups and the evolving tactics and capabilities of both sides. The analysis explores the humanitarian dimensions of the conflict, assessing the impact on Afghan society including refugee flows, internal displacement, economic disruption, and social transformation. The article investigates the political landscape within Afghanistan, examining the Soviet-backed governments limited legitimacy, the fragmentation of resistance groups, and emerging civil society voices calling for peace. The study examines international mediation efforts, particularly the United Nations-sponsored Geneva talks, analyzing the positions of different parties and the obstacles to agreement on key issues including Soviet withdrawal, non-interference guarantees, and refugee return. The research assesses the regional context of the conflict, examining how Pakistan, Iran, and other neighboring states approaches to the crisis influence negotiation dynamics. Based on the comprehensive assessment, the article identifies potential compromise formulas that could break the negotiation impasse and analyzes the conditions under which different parties might consider settlement options. The findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of negotiated settlements in proxy wars and contribute to understanding how international conflicts with significant internal dimensions can be resolved through diplomatic means.