AFGHANISTAN: SOVIET WITHDRAWAL AND AFTER

This strategic analysis examines the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and assesses the potential scenarios for the country's future following nearly a decade of military occupation. The article explores the factors leading to the Soviet decision to withdraw, including military stalemate, international pressure, and changing Soviet domestic priorities. The research investigates the negotiation process that led to the Geneva Accords and analyzes the terms and implementation challenges of the settlement. The study examines the balance of forces among Afghan factions following Soviet withdrawal and assesses the prospects for political settlement or continued civil war. The article analyzes the regional implications of Soviet withdrawal, particularly for Pakistan, Iran, and other neighboring states. The research also evaluates the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan and the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction. Furthermore, the analysis considers the broader implications of the Afghanistan conflict for superpower relations and regional security dynamics.

The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan represented a watershed moment in late Cold War history, with this article providing a comprehensive assessment of the withdrawal process and its aftermath in early 1988. The research begins by examining the military situation in Afghanistan preceding the withdrawal decision, analyzing the stalemate that developed despite Soviet military superiority and the growing costs of the occupation. The analysis explores the negotiation process that produced the Geneva Accords, examining the roles of the United Nations, Pakistan, Soviet Union, United States, and various Afghan factions in reaching a settlement. The article investigates the implementation challenges of the withdrawal agreement, including ceasefire violations, prisoner exchanges, and the establishment of transitional arrangements. The study examines the balance of forces among Afghan resistance groups following Soviet withdrawal, analyzing the military capabilities, political programs, and external support networks of different mujahideen factions. The research assesses the position of the Najibullah government in Kabul, examining its survival strategies, internal reforms, and attempts to broaden its political base. Based on the comprehensive assessment, the article develops scenarios for Afghanistan's future, ranging from negotiated power-sharing to prolonged civil war to regional fragmentation. The findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of superpower disengagement from regional conflicts and contribute to understanding the challenges of post-occupation political settlement in deeply divided societies.