RECENT SECURITY SCENARIO IN AFGHANISTAN: ROLES AND IMPACTS OF THE ISAF AND THE WAY FORWARD

This article evaluates Afghanistan’s security landscape as ISAF operations wound down, weighing the coalition’s contributions to capacity building against enduring challenges of insurgency, governance, and illicit economies. It traces the evolution from counterinsurgency to train-advise-assist, and highlights gaps in air support, logistics, and intelligence that Afghan forces would need to fill. The abstract emphasizes that the durability of security gains depends on political inclusion, credible elections, sustainable financing for the security sector, and regional diplomacy involving Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian states.

The body provides a concise history of ISAF’s mandate and strategy shifts, then analyzes district-level conflict trends and the mixed record of Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. It examines governance deficits—corruption, fragmented authority, and narcotics rents—that undermine legitimacy. The regional chapter maps cross-border sanctuaries, refugee flows, and competitive interests of neighboring powers. Policy options are grouped into security sector reform (force structure, logistics autonomy, aviation), political settlement (incentives for power-sharing and local dispute resolution), and economic stabilization (aid predictability, infrastructure corridors, and reintegration programs). The paper argues for a calibrated international footprint focused on enablers and conditional financial support, alongside Afghan-led reconciliation. The conclusion outlines risk scenarios and proposes indicators—territorial control, recruitment/attrition ratios, and revenue mobilization—to track whether the transition consolidates or unravels.