CHINA AND THE BALANCE OF POWER IN ASIA

Focusing on the late-1990s and early-2000s, this article analyzes China’s growing economic and military capabilities and their implications for Asia’s balance of power. It surveys trends in PLA modernization, maritime strategy, and defense spending, alongside China’s deepening trade interdependence with neighbors. The article evaluates how key actors—Japan, India, ASEAN members, Australia and the United States—have adjusted through alliance reassurance, capacity building, and hedging strategies. It argues that outcomes depend less on raw power than on institutionalized crisis-management, transparency, and the health of regional economic integration that raises the opportunity cost of conflict. The piece explores confidence-building measures and multilateral forums that can cushion competition.

The body opens with indicators of China’s growth and force transformation, then assesses implications by sub-region. Section One examines maritime Asia: sea-lane security, EEZ disputes, and the salience of coast guards and maritime militia. Section Two considers continental dynamics, including Sino-Indian competition and CBMs along the disputed frontier. Section Three analyzes alliance and partnership adjustments—U.S.–Japan guidelines, India’s Look East policy, ASEAN’s diplomacy—and the role of arms acquisitions in shaping deterrence. Section Four discusses economic interdependence: supply-chain integration, WTO entry, and the stabilizing effects of trade, while acknowledging new vulnerabilities. Section Five offers policy options: transparency on exercises, hotlines, notification regimes, and functional cooperation in SAR, HADR, and public health. The conclusion suggests that a balanced Asian order will hinge on credible deterrence combined with dense networks of civilian and military cooperation that channel rivalry away from confrontation.