ENVIRONMENT, SCARCITY OF WATER AND VIOLENT CONFLICT: A STUDY IN THEIR LINKAGES

This article provides a study of the linkages between environmental degradation, specifically water scarcity, and the outbreak of violent conflict. It moves beyond a simple Malthusian argument to explore the complex causal pathways that can connect resource scarcity to violence. The study analyzes how water scarcity, when combined with other factors such as high population growth, political instability, and ethnic divisions, can act as a "threat multiplier." The research examines these linkages at different levels: inter-state conflict over shared river basins, and intra-state conflict as different groups within a country compete for access to scarce water resources. The paper uses case studies from various parts of the world, including the Middle East and South Asia, to illustrate these dynamics. The analysis concludes that while environmental scarcity is rarely the sole cause of a conflict, it is an increasingly important contributing factor, and one that requires greater attention from the international security community.

The potential for "water wars" has become a growing concern in international security studies. This paper provides a nuanced study of the complex linkages between water scarcity and violent conflict. The analysis begins by critiquing simplistic, environmentally deterministic arguments. It posits that scarcity does not automatically lead to conflict; rather, the political and social context in which scarcity occurs is the crucial mediating factor. The core of the study is the development of an analytical framework that identifies the key intervening variables. These include the capacity and legitimacy of state institutions to manage resource conflicts peacefully, the nature of property rights and access to water, and the presence of pre-existing social or ethnic cleavages that can be exacerbated by resource competition. The paper then applies this framework to two different types of conflict scenarios. The first is inter-state conflict, with a focus on the hydro-politics of major international river basins like the Jordan and the Nile, where upstream and downstream countries have conflicting interests. The second is intra-state or sub-national conflict, where competition over water for irrigation or livelihoods can fuel violence between different communities or between citizens and the state. The findings suggest that the risk of violent conflict is highest when water scarcity is combined with weak governance, high levels of poverty and inequality, and pre-existing political tensions. The paper concludes that building resilient and equitable institutions for water management is a critical conflict prevention strategy.