ETHNIC CONFLICT IN SRI LANKA : FUTURE DIMENSIONS

This article provides a timely analysis of the escalating ethnic conflict between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka during the mid-1980s. It traces the historical roots of the conflict, from colonial-era policies to post-independence linguistic and religious nationalism. The study examines the key grievances of the Tamil community and the rise of militant separatism, culminating in the outbreak of full-scale civil war. The research analyzes the strategies of both the Sri Lankan government and the various Tamil militant groups, particularly the LTTE. It also assesses the role of external actors, most notably India, in the conflict. The paper explores the future dimensions of the conflict, evaluating the prospects for a negotiated political settlement versus a prolonged military confrontation. It concludes that without a fundamental constitutional restructuring that addresses Tamil aspirations for autonomy and equality, a lasting peace would remain elusive.

By the mid-1980s, the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka had escalated from sporadic riots into a brutal and intractable civil war. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the conflict at this critical juncture and explores its future dimensions. The analysis begins with a concise overview of the historical grievances that fueled Tamil separatism, including the "Sinhala Only Act" and state-sponsored colonization of traditional Tamil areas. The study then charts the radicalization of Tamil politics and the emergence of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as the dominant militant force. The core of the article is an examination of the state's response, which increasingly relied on a military solution, leading to widespread human rights abuses and the alienation of the entire Tamil population. The paper provides a detailed assessment of the growing role of India, which was attempting to mediate the conflict while also managing the political pressures from its own Tamil population in Tamil Nadu. The concluding section of the paper looks to the future, outlining a series of potential scenarios. It evaluates the likelihood of a military victory for either side, the potential for a federal solution that could accommodate Tamil autonomy, and the risks of a prolonged, attritional war that would devastate the country. The findings underscore the urgent need for a political vision that could transcend the zero-sum logic of ethnic nationalism and create a pluralistic and inclusive state for all Sri Lankans.