Abstract
This article examines the potential expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and analyzes the specific horizons and perspectives of Iran regarding its potential membership. It traces the evolution of the SCO from a body focused on Central Asian border security to a more comprehensive regional organization with a broader political, economic, and security agenda. The study explores the motivations behind Iran's desire to upgrade its status from an observer to a full member, linking it to the country's strategy of overcoming Western-led isolation and building stronger ties with the major non-Western powers of China and Russia. The research also assesses the perspectives of the existing SCO members on Iranian membership, highlighting both the potential benefits of including a major energy power and the geopolitical complexities and risks it would entail, particularly in the context of the ongoing nuclear standoff with the West. The paper concludes that while Iranian membership offers a logical extension of the SCO's "look south" policy, its realization is contingent on a complex set of regional and international geopolitical calculations.
Full Text
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), originally focused on Central Asia, began to look towards expansion in the mid-2000s, with Iran being one of the most prominent candidates for membership. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the horizons and perspectives surrounding this potential expansion, with a specific focus on Iran. The first part of the study examines Iran's motivations for seeking full membership. It argues that for Tehran, which was facing intense diplomatic and economic pressure from the United States and its allies over its nuclear program, the SCO represented a vital alternative political and economic bloc. Membership was seen as a way to demonstrate that Iran was not isolated, to build a deeper strategic partnership with China and Russia, and to gain access to new markets and investment opportunities. The second part of the paper analyzes the issue from the perspective of the existing SCO members, particularly its two leading powers, China and Russia. It explores the arguments in favor of Iran's inclusion, such as its strategic location, its vast energy resources, and its potential role in stabilizing Afghanistan. However, the paper also delves into the significant reservations. It discusses the concern that admitting Iran while it was under UN sanctions could transform the SCO into an explicitly anti-Western bloc, a step that both Beijing and Moscow were hesitant to take. The findings reveal a complex strategic calculus, with the SCO weighing the geopolitical benefits of expansion against the potential costs of increased confrontation with the West. The paper concludes that the question of Iranian membership was a key test of the SCO's future strategic direction.