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Abstract
This article examines the global climate negotiation process between the Cancun and Durban conferences (2010–2011), exploring the prospects of establishing a new climate regime. It analyzes the positions of developed and developing countries, the dynamics of burden sharing, and the role of major emitters like the US, EU, China, and India. The study considers the limitations of the Kyoto Protocol, the significance of the Cancun Agreements, and the political obstacles to achieving a binding treaty. The article argues that while progress was modest, incremental steps in finance, technology transfer, and transparency built confidence for future negotiations. However, uncertainties persisted about whether a comprehensive and enforceable regime would emerge.
Full Text
The body reviews the historical background of climate negotiations, beginning with Rio 1992 and Kyoto 1997. Section One details the Cancun Agreements: Green Climate Fund, REDD+, and monitoring mechanisms. Section Two analyses negotiating blocs: G77, BASIC, EU, and Umbrella Group. Section Three evaluates the US-China dynamic and its influence on global outcomes. Section Four addresses adaptation and mitigation commitments, technology transfer, and financial pledges. Section Five highlights challenges such as sovereignty concerns, compliance gaps, and diverging economic interests. The conclusion assesses Durban’s potential to advance a legally binding agreement, emphasizing the importance of political will and inclusive multilateralism.