SECURITY CHALLENGES OF SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES IN THE COMING DECADE: AN OVERVIEW

This article provides a forward-looking overview of the major security challenges confronting the countries of South Asia in the decade of the 2000s. It argues that the security agenda would be shaped by a complex interplay of traditional and non-traditional threats. The study analyzes the enduring traditional security challenges, particularly the nuclearized rivalry between India and Pakistan and the unresolved Kashmir dispute, which would continue to be the primary driver of inter-state tension. However, the research places a strong emphasis on the growing salience of a range of non-traditional and internal security challenges. These include the rise of religious extremism and terrorism, the proliferation of ethno-nationalist insurgencies, the challenges of governance and political instability, and the growing threats from environmental degradation and resource scarcity. The paper concludes that the coming decade would require a more comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach to security from all the states of the region.

As South Asia entered the new millennium, it faced a security environment of immense complexity and danger. This paper offers a comprehensive overview of the key challenges that were likely to define the coming decade. The analysis is structured around the distinction between traditional and non-traditional security. The first part of the study examines the traditional security agenda. It provides a stark assessment of the new dangers of the post-1998 nuclear era, arguing that the risk of a catastrophic conflict between India and Pakistan, whether by accident or miscalculation, had increased significantly. The paper analyzes the Kargil crisis of 1999 as a dangerous harbinger of the instability that could characterize this new era. The second, and more extensive, part of the paper is dedicated to the non-traditional and internal security challenges. It argues that for most people in South Asia, the more immediate threats to their security came not from inter-state war but from internal sources. This section provides a detailed analysis of the rise of transnational jihadi terrorism, the persistence of numerous ethnic insurgencies across the region, and the deep-seated problems of poor governance and political instability that created a fertile ground for conflict. The findings suggest that the security of South Asian states was being challenged as much from within as from without. The paper concludes that the decade ahead would demand a paradigm shift, requiring policymakers to adopt a more holistic view of security that addressed both the military and the human dimensions of the region's manifold crises.