SINO-SOVIET RAPPROCHEMENT : IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH ASIA

The paper explores how the late-1980s thaw between Beijing and Moscow recalibrated strategic choices for South Asian states. It explains why a reduction in great-power hostility dampened proxy dynamics around Afghanistan and eased constraints on bilateral diplomacy across the region. The article surveys likely effects on defense procurement, aid flows, and diplomatic bandwidth, showing how India, Pakistan, and smaller states read the shift in major-power signaling. It argues that rapprochement narrowed opportunities for balance-of-power leverage but opened space for economic pragmatism, scientific exchanges, and arms-control learning. The core claim is that a cooler triangle reduced escalation incentives and created incentives to localize disputes—if regional actors could capitalize on the window.

After setting the historical context of the Sino-Soviet split and its reverberations in South Asia, the body analyzes three channels of impact. First, security externalities: declining risk of great-power confrontation in the neighborhood lowered the premium on rapid alignment choices, enabling more diverse partnerships. Second, economic and technological spillovers: access to equipment, training, and credits diversified as both powers sought normal relations, altering bargaining power for South Asian buyers. Third, diplomacy and norms: the two powers’ renewed dialogue encouraged regional conversations on confidence-building measures, arms notifications, and border management. Case vignettes consider Indian procurement calculations, Pakistan’s security hedging, and opportunities for smaller states to attract development assistance. The article concludes that while rapprochement did not resolve local rivalries, it softened the constraints that had previously magnified them, inviting regional initiatives on trade corridors, public health, and disaster response.