In-house Seminar

This in-house seminar addresses the critical geopolitical issue of Taiwan as the most dangerous flashpoint in the escalating strategic rivalry between the United States and China. While geographically distant, a contingency in the Taiwan Strait would have profound and far-reaching consequences that would inevitably impact Bangladesh. This discussion is designed to move beyond a general acknowledgment of the risk to a specific analysis of the potential implications for Bangladesh's economy, security, and foreign policy. The seminar will begin by outlining various contingency scenarios, ranging from a blockade to a full-scale invasion, and the likely international responses, including economic sanctions and potential military involvement.

The core of the seminar will focus on the specific channels through which a Taiwan crisis would affect Bangladesh. Economically, it will assess the severe disruption to global supply chains and maritime trade that would ensue, given that the Taiwan Strait is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. The impact on Bangladesh's export-oriented economy, its reliance on imported energy and raw materials, and the potential for a global economic recession will be examined. Strategically, the discussion will explore the immense diplomatic pressure Bangladesh would face to take a side, challenging its long-standing foreign policy of neutrality and strategic autonomy. The seminar will also consider the potential security implications for the Bay of Bengal and the broader Indo-Pacific region. The objective is to conduct a clear-eyed risk assessment and develop preliminary policy considerations for Bangladesh to mitigate the economic shock and navigate the intense geopolitical pressures of such a contingency, ensuring the protection of its national interests in a crisis scenario.