This seminar evaluates shifting risk profiles in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea during a renewed Trump era in Washington. The discussion frames uncertainty as a structural feature of the regional order shaped by competing maritime claims, deterrence signaling, technology denial regimes, and realignments among US allies and partners. Speakers assess policy signals on defense posture, export controls, arms sales, and freedom of navigation operations, and how these measures interact with response patterns from Beijing and regional navies. Scenario analysis considers crisis triggers such as near misses at sea, unmanned platform incidents, cyber interference in maritime critical infrastructure, and information operations that amplify misperception. The session places special attention on supply chain exposure for energy and trade flowing through sea lanes, including implications for South Asian economies. Participants review the role of ASEAN centered forums, minilateral platforms, and coast guard cooperation in reducing escalation risks. The seminar also explores the impact of new technologies, including long range precision fires, counter drone measures, and satellite based domain awareness that compress decision time for commanders. The group identifies risk management options for middle states that seek strategic balance, focusing on diversified connectivity, maritime domain awareness, crisis communications, and confidence building at sea. The overall objective is to translate fast moving geopolitical signals into practical policy guidance for analysts and planners who must manage uncertainty while protecting national interests and regional stability.
