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Abstract
This article analyzes Myanmar’s uncertain political trajectory in the mid-1990s, oscillating between pressures for democratization and the appeal of East Asian authoritarian development models. It situates the discussion in the context of the 1988 uprising, subsequent military dominance, and cautious economic opening. The paper contrasts international advocacy for democracy with regional tolerance for stability-focused governance. It raises the question of whether Myanmar’s ruling elite would prioritize political liberalization or pursue developmental authoritarianism modeled on East Asian economies such as South Korea or Singapore. The study highlights implications for ASEAN and Western engagement strategies.
Full Text
The body first traces Myanmar’s political history since independence, emphasizing the 1962 coup and its long-lasting institutional consequences. Section One examines the 1988 uprising, the suppression of pro-democracy forces, and the persistence of military dominance. Section Two analyzes economic liberalization measures, foreign investment patterns, and regional integration, with particular attention to the role of China and ASEAN. Section Three contrasts the democracy advocacy agenda with the developmental-authoritarian model, evaluating the regime’s calculus. Section Four considers implications for regional security and the prospects for gradual reforms. The conclusion argues that while democratization pressures were strong, the military’s control and developmental ambitions made Myanmar’s path highly contingent and uncertain.